What if a major hurricane shuts in Gulf of Mexico oil and gas?
A major Gulf hurricane shut-in lifts Brent/WTI and refined products as offshore barrels and refining go offline, with energy majors (XOM/CVX) and breakevens firming. Rhymes with Hurricanes Katrina/Rita (2005) and Ida (2021), which spiked gasoline cracks more than crude itself. Forward angle: the gasoline/diesel crack is the cleaner trade than flat crude here — refining outages, not upstream, drive the pump-price and CPI impulse, and the shock is typically short-lived.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major hurricane shuts in Gulf of Mexico oil & gas production. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.