What if Gulf SWFs rotate into local equities, Tadawul re-rates?
Sustained-high oil revenues let Gulf sovereign funds deepen local markets, drawing index inflows that re-rate the Tadawul and firm regional currencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Sustained-high oil revenues let Gulf sovereign funds deepen local markets, drawing index inflows that re-rate the Tadawul and firm regional currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Oil demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.67–-0.57% · other way -1.51% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.42–+0.83% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.0–+11.9% · other way -3.94% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.28–+0.52% · other way +3.9% (n=11) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.25–+0.52% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.01–+1.11% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.53–+1.94% · other way +4.8% (n=11) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.09–+2.9% · other way +9.07% (n=11) |
| 10 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.25–+1.43% · other way -0.99% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.24–+0.38% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.16–+0.26% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.28–+0.1% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.29–+0.97% · other way +2.07% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.4% · 5d +4.3% | 72% | 30 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.5% | 71% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 70% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 71% | 36 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.2% | 65% | 39 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +1.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.7% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 54% | 38 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |