What if H5N1 bird flu starts spreading between humans?
Cleanest chain: a WHO H5N1 pandemic declaration + travel halts collapses mobility — crude and the jet/diesel complex crater while gold and duration bid on forced Fed easing. This is the COVID-Feb/Mar-2020 template (WTI fell ~70% into negative, gold rallied). Forward twist vs. 2020: an inflation-scarred Fed and an oil market with thinner spare capacity mean the crude drop could be sharp but the policy-easing bid for gold is the higher-conviction leg. Roots (pandemic 1.3, risk -1.1) are well-calibrated.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Confirmed sustained human-to-human H5N1 avian-flu spread in three countries triggers WHO pandemic declaration and travel halts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Pandemic shock ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -5.4% hist -10.12–+0.04% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.1% hist +0.57–+3.71% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.8% hist -7.67–-0.59% · other way -0.51% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.39–-0.8% · other way +0.81% (n=12) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +3.2% hist -1.19–+2.15% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -6.5–+0.14% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -6.13–-0.07% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.8% hist -1.6–+2.3% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.44–-0.74% · other way +12.12% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.06–+0.56% · other way +1.74% (n=12) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.6% hist -4.12–+11.61% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.43–-0.14% · other way +0.72% (n=12) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -15bp hist -13.6–-2.76% · other way +7.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the measured history: airlines UAL/DAL fell -16% across a clean, on-channel COVID-2020 pandemic sample — the cascade's 'LONG/up' is plainly wrong; SOL/NVDA 'up' is BTC/AI-capex rebound contamination.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -2.3% | 84% | 40 | 0.66 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.2% | 78% | 40 | 0.55 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -2.3% | 74% | 40 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -3.1% | 74% | 40 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.1% | 70% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.5% | 67% | 37 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 66% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +0.5% | 66% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -6.5% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -5.2% | 65% | 23 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Sustained H5N1 human-to-human in three countries is rare tail; elevated watch, no chains yet. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.