What if High-skill immigration reform supercharges US innovation (good)?
Expanded high-skill visas and a startup-founder pathway draw global talent into US tech and research; faster innovation and firm formation lift productivity, earnings and risk appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Expanded high-skill visas and a startup-founder pathway draw global talent into US tech and research; faster innovation and firm formation lift productivity, earnings and risk appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI breakthrough ▲ · Growth surprise ▲ · Labor surplus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.51–+1.05% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.32–+3.77% · other way -2.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -5.31–+10.76% · other way +4.96% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -22.58–+3.74% · other way -16.53% (n=7) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.31–+1.65% · other way +0.82% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.25–+0.52% · other way +0.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.72–+1.5% · other way -13.3% (n=9) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.85–+5.49% · other way -9.14% (n=11) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.06–+1.17% · other way +1.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.78–+2.18% · other way +4.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.54–+2.71% · other way -2.49% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.22–+2.66% · other way +1.65% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.19–+0.42% · other way +3.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 15 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -18.9% · 5d -9.4% | 100% | 11 | 0.70 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.8% | 86% | 9 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 74% | 14 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 69% | 15 | 0.30 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.4% | 74% | 14 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +2bp | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.8% | 64% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 14 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.0% | 65% | 14 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +1.7% | 62% | 14 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.2% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 14 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 14 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 14 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |