What if surging mainland provisions and shrinking margins collapse Hong Kong bank profits?
Compressed net interest margins, surging mainland provisions and falling fee income collapse Hong Kong bank profitability, eroding internal capital generation under the HKMA stress test.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Compressed net interest margins, surging mainland provisions and falling fee income collapse Hong Kong bank profitability, eroding internal capital generation under the HKMA stress test. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.