What if Hong Kong dollar peg pressured to the weak side of its band?
Capital outflows and a wide HKD-USD rate gap push the Hong Kong dollar to the weak end of its convertibility band, draining the aggregate balance as the HKMA defends.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Capital outflows and a wide HKD-USD rate gap push the Hong Kong dollar to the weak end of its convertibility band, draining the aggregate balance as the HKMA defends. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.21–+0.37% · other way +25.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -5.82–+1.46% · other way +5.1% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -19.66–+4.58% · other way -2.51% (n=11) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.77–+0.01% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -8.28–+2.68% · other way +3.69% (n=11) |
| 6 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.63–+2.47% · other way +23.7% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–-0.33% · other way -0.82% (n=12) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.79–-0.13% · other way -0.53% (n=12) |
| 10 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.01–+0.8% · other way +1.08% (n=12) |
| 11 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.53–-0.11% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.71–+0.04% · other way -1.69% (n=12) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.99–+0.1% · other way -1.14% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.18–+0.93% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -16.8% · 5d -17.3% | 81% | 15 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +-0.0% | 67% | 36 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -7.9% | 66% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 37 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 21 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 23 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.3% · 5d +0.6% | 55% | 14 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.3% | 53% | 37 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |