What if Hot jobs print led by AI-build trades calms recession fears?
A strong payrolls report driven by construction and skilled-trades hiring tied to the AI and reshoring build-out eases recession fears and lifts cyclicals; the labor-strength surprise supports risk and steepens the curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A strong payrolls report driven by construction and skilled-trades hiring tied to the AI and reshoring build-out eases recession fears and lifts cyclicals; the labor-strength surprise supports risk and steepens the curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Labor shortage ▲ · Recession signal ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.44–+1.94% · other way -5.96% (n=8) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -5.22–+12.59% · other way +1.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.07–+3.15% · other way -5.99% (n=8) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.5–+0.59% · other way +0.27% (n=11) |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.51–+2.09% · other way -3.22% (n=10) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.49–-0.18% · other way +5.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.09–+0.23% · other way +0.55% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.55–+0.53% · other way -1.99% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.59–+0.31% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.37–+7.2% · other way +3.26% (n=8) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.24–+1.11% · other way +0.27% (n=11) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.3–+0.96% · other way +0.95% (n=11) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.33–+2.35% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.0% | 73% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 67% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 66% | 39 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +4bp | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -7.6% | 57% | 38 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -3.0% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |