What if Housing-supply deregulation reflates builders, materials and lenders?
A coordinated push to cut permitting friction and upzone unlocks a construction pipeline that lifts builders, building-products makers and construction lenders together; the supply-side reflation broadens the housing-linked trade.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A coordinated push to cut permitting friction and upzone unlocks a construction pipeline that lifts builders, building-products makers and construction lenders together; the supply-side reflation broadens the housing-linked trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.