What if Hungary triggers a referendum to quit the EU budget?
A Huxit referendum is a forint-collapse and CEE-contagion trade: frozen EU funds plus exit risk crater HUF, blow out Hungarian CDS, and spill to PLN/CZK and Austrian banks (Erste, Raiffeisen) with heavy CEE exposure. Rhymes with the 2015 Grexit scare (drachma-redenomination premium, periphery spreads gapped). The forward angle: Hungary is far smaller than Greece, so contagion is more idiosyncratic than systemic — fade the global-equity leg.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Orban government triggers Huxit referendum after funds frozen, forint collapses and CEE contagion spreads. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.