What if a hyperscaler's busiest cloud region goes dark for days?
A multi-day outage of a hyperscaler's busiest region is an operational cloud failure — dependent SaaS/businesses lose revenue, but it is not an AI-capex demand cut, so selling Nvidia/Micron/HBM on 'ai_capex -0.3' is the wrong channel (the GPUs stay bought). Rhymes with the Dec-2021 and Oct-2025 AWS us-east-1 outages: broad service disruption, near-zero semi or index impact. Correct read is a contained risk-off.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A single cloud provider's busiest region goes dark for days from a cooling-and-power cascade, crippling dependent businesses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.