What if a hyperscaler's busiest cloud region goes dark for days?
A multi-day outage of a hyperscaler's busiest region is an operational cloud failure — dependent SaaS/businesses lose revenue, but it is not an AI-capex demand cut, so selling Nvidia/Micron/HBM on 'ai_capex -0.3' is the wrong channel (the GPUs stay bought). Rhymes with the Dec-2021 and Oct-2025 AWS us-east-1 outages: broad service disruption, near-zero semi or index impact. Correct read is a contained risk-off.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A single cloud provider's busiest region goes dark for days from a cooling-and-power cascade, crippling dependent businesses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -11.42–+1.47% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.79–+2.34% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.41–+0.39% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.01% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.73–+0.48% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.0–+1.68% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.11% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: MSTR's +15% rests on an ASML-miss spike and Iran-strike window during the Bitcoin bull — a cloud-region outage has no crypto channel; the measured up-move is swamped by BTC.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -7.6% | 75% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +1bp | 53% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Hyperscaler region outages recur (AWS us-east-1); a multi-day busiest-region dark event in 6mo is moderate, not rare. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.