What if an accelerated EV shift strands the internal-combustion auto supply chain?
An accelerated EV transition strands internal-combustion auto supply chains, impairing engine, transmission and exhaust suppliers and lifting credit losses across the ICE parts ecosystem.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An accelerated EV transition strands internal-combustion auto supply chains, impairing engine, transmission and exhaust suppliers and lifting credit losses across the ICE parts ecosystem. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.44–+1.73% · other way -1.42% (n=11) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.51–+0.62% · other way -0.6% (n=11) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.61–-0.01% · other way +1.45% (n=9) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.53–+1.77% · other way +16.2% (n=11) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.49–+0.79% · other way +7.42% (n=11) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.72–+0.16% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.59–+7.68% · other way -8.53% (n=11) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.79–+0.16% · other way -1.75% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–-0.05% · other way +1.9% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.03–+0.71% · other way +8.78% (n=5) |
| 11 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.45–+0.3% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.53–+1.23% · other way +0.75% (n=11) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -10.69–+4.94% · other way -14.96% (n=5) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.3% · 5d -7.6% | 80% | 10 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 14 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 35 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.3% | 66% | 35 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -10.3% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 67% | 9 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.2% | 64% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +1.9% | 59% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.1% | 60% | 35 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 35 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -6bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |