What if repeated cat-bond losses prompt pension funds to withdraw from ILS markets?
A multi-year run of cat-bond and collateralized-reinsurance losses prompts pension and hedge-fund ILS investors to withdraw, shrinking alternative reinsurance capital the FSB tracks as a transfer channel.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-year run of cat-bond and collateralized-reinsurance losses prompts pension and hedge-fund ILS investors to withdraw, shrinking alternative reinsurance capital the FSB tracks as a transfer channel. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.89–+1.21% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.0–+1.93% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 3 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.8–-0.06% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.53–+1.57% · other way +4.1% (n=9) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.58–-0.25% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -2.65–+8.21% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.48–-0.17% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 9 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.3–+1.48% · other way -4.35% (n=11) |
| 10 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.29–+0.56% · other way -2.96% (n=11) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.02–+0.12% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.54–-0.04% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.61–+1.38% · other way +2.85% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.44–+5.41% · other way +26.15% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.8% | 69% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -8.4% | 71% | 7 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 11 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +2.3% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 32 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -5bp | 54% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |