What if Imported-inflation relapse forces EM hikes and FX defense at once?
A renewed import-price surge revives EM inflation, forcing simultaneous rate hikes and FX intervention that tighten conditions and dent growth-sensitive assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A renewed import-price surge revives EM inflation, forcing simultaneous rate hikes and FX intervention that tighten conditions and dent growth-sensitive assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -5.54–+0.68% · other way +4.41% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.89–-0.08% · other way +0.48% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.65–-0.3% · other way +8.77% (n=6) |
| 4 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.31–-0.16% · other way +0.33% (n=9) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.58–+2.86% · other way -1.88% (n=7) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.46–-0.09% · other way +1.21% (n=12) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.65–-0.05% · other way -0.99% (n=9) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.08–+2.86% · other way +10.06% (n=6) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.65–+2.0% · other way -8.02% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.81–+0.16% · other way -0.08% (n=11) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.93–+3.68% · other way +11.9% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–-0.03% · other way -0.32% (n=8) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.9–+2.45% · other way +12.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -6.6% | 72% | 15 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.9% | 72% | 33 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.8% | 64% | 32 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -5.1% | 68% | 13 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.9% | 58% | 11 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 32 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +4.1% | 58% | 11 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.3% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 30 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 32 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 32 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |