What if a surprise index reshuffle dislocates the affected stocks?
A surprise index add/delete forces passive money to transact size at the close, dislocating the single name far more than the index — the broad-market spillover here is tiny and mean-reverting. Rhymes with the 2020 Tesla S&P inclusion, where the stock front-ran the rebalance and the index barely flinched. Trade the name, not the tape; the listed roots overstate the systemic read for what is a microstructure event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise major-index addition/deletion triggers forced passive flows so large they dislocate prices in the affected single-stock names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.41–+0.63% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.04–+0.73% · other way +27.47% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -11.6–+4.97% · other way -1.04% (n=11) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–-0.13% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.17–+1.6% · other way +6.05% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.21–+2.23% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.05% · other way +0.04% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.56–+0.07% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.43–+0.59% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.24–+1.34% · other way +21.75% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short: MSTR up +6% reflects BTC-bull regime contamination in the 2023 SVB windows; a forced-flow index dislocation has nothing to do with that idiosyncratic crypto beta.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.0% · 5d -11.0% | 87% | 9 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -5.4% | 73% | 13 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +5.7% | 60% | 9 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.4% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +5.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 16 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 51% | 37 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -12bp · 5d -4bp | 51% | 40 | 0.01 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -1.2% | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 40% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Index reshuffles routine but rarely 'dislocate'; common minor flows, lasting shock uncommon. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.