What if a surprise index reshuffle dislocates the affected stocks?
A surprise index add/delete forces passive money to transact size at the close, dislocating the single name far more than the index — the broad-market spillover here is tiny and mean-reverting. Rhymes with the 2020 Tesla S&P inclusion, where the stock front-ran the rebalance and the index barely flinched. Trade the name, not the tape; the listed roots overstate the systemic read for what is a microstructure event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise major-index addition/deletion triggers forced passive flows so large they dislocate prices in the affected single-stock names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.