What if India extends its sugar export ban into 2027?
India extending its sugar-export ban into 2027 on a second deficit harvest keeps a major exporter sidelined — long sugar (#11), not the wheat/corn complex the generic root maps. Rhymes with India's 2023-24 export curbs that, alongside Thai drought, drove raw sugar to multi-year highs. Transmission: tightens supply for Middle East/African refiners and lifts ethanol-linked Brazilian values. Forward: India's diversion of cane to ethanol structurally shrinks its export surplus, so each deficit year bites harder than the last — a persistent bid, not a one-off.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. India extends its sugar export prohibition past 30 September 2026 into 2027 as a second deficit harvest keeps the domestic market critically tight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.