What if Surplus crude floods Asian storage, capping Dubai?
Cheap, plentiful crude pours into Chinese and Indian storage, but as tanks fill the marginal Asian bid fades, capping Dubai prices and signaling that even discounted barrels are struggling to clear.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Cheap, plentiful crude pours into Chinese and Indian storage, but as tanks fill the marginal Asian bid fades, capping Dubai prices and signaling that even discounted barrels are struggling to clear. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.