What if Indonesia RKAB quota cut snaps nickel off multi-year lows?
Jakarta slows new mining quotas to defend prices and ore reserves, abruptly tightening laterite ore supply and triggering a sharp LME nickel rebound.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Jakarta slows new mining quotas to defend prices and ore reserves, abruptly tightening laterite ore supply and triggering a sharp LME nickel rebound. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.8–+3.15% · other way +2.29% (n=6) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.83–+0.45% · other way -2.93% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.75–+2.84% · other way -4.32% (n=11) |
| 5 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.51–+0.58% · other way -3.33% (n=11) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.06–+0.41% · other way +0.18% (n=11) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.4–-0.07% · other way -3.14% (n=12) |
| 8 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.65–+1.42% · other way -3.69% (n=11) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.79–+9.07% · other way +3.18% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.96–+2.75% · other way -5.95% (n=6) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.2–+1.96% · other way +14.24% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -7.2–+8.28% · other way -2.78% (n=10) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.2–+0.4% · other way +0.33% (n=11) |
| 14 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.87–+0.82% · other way -1.18% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +13.2% · 5d +2.9% | 85% | 12 | 0.64 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +4bp | 72% | 18 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +18.2% · 5d +1.0% | 69% | 12 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.4% | 73% | 14 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -10.5% | 72% | 8 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -4.7% | 62% | 12 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.5% | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 58% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.0% | 54% | 19 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +0.2% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |