What if Indonesia freezes its tin exports?
A corruption crackdown halting Bangka tin shipments drains LME tin stocks and ignites a refined-metal squeeze — the clean move is tin and tin-producer equities higher on the supply hole; copper is a weak proxy. Rhymes with Indonesia's 2023-24 export-permit delays that throttled shipments and lifted tin, and the recurrent PT Timah disruptions. Forward angle: Indonesia and Myanmar together gate most exportable tin, so simultaneous Indonesian and Wa-State stoppages would compound into a genuine refined-tin crisis — watch the LME backwardation and on-warrant stock draw as the real-time tell.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A corruption crackdown halts Bangka tin shipments, draining LME tin stocks and igniting a refined-metal squeeze. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.