What if Indonesia tin-export squeeze tightens global solder supply?
Indonesian export-licensing delays and a mining crackdown choke global tin supply, lifting prices and Indonesian export value while pressuring electronics solder users; industrial-metal strength and EM_FX firm.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indonesian export-licensing delays and a mining crackdown choke global tin supply, lifting prices and Indonesian export value while pressuring electronics solder users; industrial-metal strength and EM_FX firm. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.52–+0.78% · other way -2.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.35–+0.71% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.39–+0.59% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.2–+2.46% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.24–+0.15% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.16–+0.85% · other way -1.23% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.47–+1.16% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.19–+0.13% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 9 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.34% · other way -3.32% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 71% | 38 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 68% | 38 | 0.26 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.5% | 63% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 38 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 51% | 38 | 0.02 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 46% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |