Semiconductor supply risk
Every scenario in which semiconductor supply risk is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
367 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
57%▼ 3–10 years
What if AI capex matures into a durable multi-year platform cycle?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle trough: inventory clears and SOX bottoms?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if 2nm ramp drives a leading-edge foundry revenue super-cycle?
50%▼ 1–3 years
What if Analog/MCU chip cycle troughs and inflects higher?
48%▼ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia rises as neutral AI-chip routing hub amid US curbs?
48%▼ 1–3 years
What if AVGO custom-silicon super-cycle lifts the merchant-ASIC chain?
47%▼ 3–10 years
What if TSMC Arizona 2nm ramp dilutes Taiwan single-point-of-failure?
46%▼ 1–3 years
What if Reshoring + CHIPS subsidies broaden resilient chip supply?
46%▼ 1–3 years
What if On-prem enterprise AI clusters add a new accelerator demand lane?
45%▼ 1–3 years
What if AI productivity boom validates the capex super-cycle?
44%▼ 1–3 years
What if Vietnam joins global chip supply chain via Nvidia/partner deals?
44%▼ 1–3 years
What if Silicon-shield diversification de-risks leading-edge supply?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if a sovereign AI arms race redirects national budgets to chips?
42%▼ 3–10 years
What if TSMC Japan Kumamoto cluster diversifies node geography?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI capex shifts from training to cheaper inference?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Custom-ASIC de-throning: TPU/Trainium/Maia take inference share?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Memory glut snap-back craters DRAM/NAND pricing?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Components inventory bust whips the AI supply chain?
42%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle peak: SOX rolls over as orders normalize?
41%▼ 1–3 years
What if Malaysia semiconductor IDM/foundry localization deepens?
40%▲ 3–10 years
What if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Cross-strait status quo holds, tail risk fades?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if Semiconductor fabs anchor a Gujarat-Assam chip cluster?
38%▼ 1–3 years
What if ASEAN semis cluster (VN+MY) re-rates on AI-packaging demand?
37%▼ 3–10 years
What if Global 'silicon shield' diversification halves Taiwan chip share?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesia tin-export squeeze tightens global solder supply?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Advanced-packaging (CoWoS) bottleneck caps AI chip output?
36%▲ 3–10 years
What if Taiwan's record-low fertility hollows out its talent pipeline?
35%▼ 3–10 years
What if Friend-shored chip fabs make Asia chip-supply resilient?
34%▼ 3–10 years
What if KMT 2028 win ushers in a cross-strait economic thaw?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if On-device/edge-AI NPU refresh lifts the consumer-silicon chain?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if TSMC dual-fab Japan+US strategy compresses TWD risk premium?
33%▼ 3–10 years
What if Taiwan completes LNG storage buildout to a 24-day buffer?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if CHIPS-Act fabs ramp, easing supply fragility?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-EU-Japan tech alliance counters China scale?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if Next-gen GPU platform ramp drives a new accelerator up-cycle?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente: targeted export-control rollback?
33%▼ 1–3 years
What if TSMC Arizona 2nm yields hit parity, anchoring US supply?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan AI-server export boom lifts TAIEX despite Strait risk?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if TWD carry rebuilds as Strait tensions normalize lower?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Korea HBM boom lifts SK Hynix and KOSPI to records?
32%▼ 3–10 years
What if India emerges as a friend-shored chip-packaging hub?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if China-allowed Nvidia chip sales resume under deal?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if ASML-TSM relief rally on export-rule clarity?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam semis back-end FDI deepens chip packaging cluster?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Sovereign-AI demand wave backstops accelerator orders?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if HBM/DRAM memory super-cycle: prices spike +275%?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Optical-networking boom as AI clusters scale interconnect?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if SMIC/Huawei domestic-stack acceleration erodes US chip share?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Cloud-capex guidance raise re-rates the whole AI chain?
32%▼ 3–10 years
What if Intel Foundry wins marquee AI customer, validating US fabs?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if GPU shortage eases as supply catches demand, normalizing lead times?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Trump-Xi détente reopens US-China mil-to-mil hotline?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if KRW rallies as a Peninsula thaw and chip cycle align?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Diversified chip geography blunts a Taiwan scare's market hit?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stable yen and resilient chips underpin an Asia soft landing?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if Vietnam data-center FDI wave feeds AI-server back-end demand?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if Mexico semiconductor assembly cluster anchors North American chips?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if Multi-fab leading-edge competition ends the TSMC near-monopoly?
30%▼ 3–10 years
What if Rapidus 2nm in Japan adds a second-source leading-edge supply?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Xi signals 'patience' on reunification, dropping timeline talk?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Regional détente and chip diversification lift Asian tech broadly?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Peninsula calm and an HBM upcycle drive Korean tech to records?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if US-China grand bargain on chips and minerals?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Allied semiconductor supply diversification matures?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Korea-Japan-US trilateral deepens deterrence and trade?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Allied chip-resilience stockpiles smooth supply shocks?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if hyperscalers swap merchant GPUs for in-house chips at scale?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if a memory-chip glut sends DRAM prices crashing 50 percent?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China chip détente eases ASML/NVDA export curbs?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait CBMs cut accidental-clash risk to a multi-year low?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if China reaches 7nm-at-scale, blunting controls?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Export-control thaw lifts equipment makers?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chip-cycle upturn lifts semis and broadens tech earnings?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inference moves to custom silicon, merchant GPU TAM shrinks?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if GPU smuggling crackdown disrupts grey-market China supply?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Edge inference cannibalizes datacenter AI compute demand?
28%▼ 1–3 years
What if Smartphone AI refresh revives a stagnant handset chip cycle?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if CoWoS capacity doubles, easing the AI-chip bottleneck?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Networking-silicon share war compresses switch-chip margins?
28%▼ 6–18 months
What if Custom HBM and processing-in-memory re-rate memory makers?
27%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China codify Taiwan 'no surprises' military protocol?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Three-year GPU useful-life cut triggers write-downs?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied 'chip alliance' export bloc fragments global supply?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if TSMC prices leading-edge wafers up, squeezing fabless margins?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if China-US chip thaw lets NVDA resume advanced sales to China?
26%▼ 1–3 years
What if Supply-side renaissance: chips, energy and labor bottlenecks clear?
26%▼ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler in-house chips still lean on merchant HBM and packaging?
25%▼ 3–10 years
What if US-China stable coexistence framework caps Asia tail-risk?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tin solder squeeze on Indonesian and Myanmar supply hits?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if a rare-earth-magnet bottleneck stalls the humanoid-robot ramp?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if a post-AI memory glut busts Korea's chipmakers?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AMD seizes more than 20% of the accelerator market?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if an HBM4 yield wall leaves SK Hynix the sole supplier?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Samsung's foundry yields collapse and customers flee to TSMC?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if chipmaking export controls widen to mature-node tools?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex bubble bursts?
24%▼ 1–3 years
What if Chip-supply diversification cuts SMH's beta to Asia headlines?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Allied AI-chip cartel coordinates export policy?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Industrial silver demand falters as electronics cycle turns down?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China heavy-REE export licensing chokes Dy and Tb supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China gallium and germanium block hits chip and optics supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex digestion air-pocket de-rates the chain?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler depreciation shock outruns AI revenue?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if ROI-lag panic: 'where's the AI revenue?' selloff?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if NVDA customer-concentration hit as a hyperscaler cuts GPU orders?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if GPU gross-margin compression as competition arrives?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AMD takes double-digit AI-GPU share, breaking the monopoly?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if HBM capacity sold out through next year tightens GPU supply?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if US chip export-control escalation shuts a ~$50B China AI market?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Section-232 tariff on imported chips jolts the supply chain?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if China rare-earth/gallium counter-embargo hits chip inputs?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI bubble bursts: dot-com-style 60% chip de-rating?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-darling earnings miss sparks a 20% single-day gap-down?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if DeepSeek-style efficiency shock dents the capex narrative?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Cloud-capex guidance cut tanks the AI supplier complex?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if GPU export-control workaround chips revive China-facing revenue?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if Rare-earth magnet chokepoint halts F-35 and missile production lines?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if an ASML export ban escalated the chip war?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington bars allied HBM sales to Chinese-linked AI clusters?
23%▼ 3–10 years
What if Taiwan-China economic interdependence deepens, lowering war odds?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if DRC tantalum and tin squeeze hits electronics?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if HBM oversupply as three vendors all ramp at once?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Model-as-a-service price war guts AI infrastructure margins?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if DDR5/conventional DRAM crunch as HBM cannibalizes capacity?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if HBM yield breakthrough collapses memory pricing power?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if US-China hotline use defuses an Asian near-miss crisis?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan-China military hotline established, cutting clash risk?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Trump-Xi Taiwan understanding caps the 2027 invasion-window fear?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Cross-strait integration pact slashes the invasion risk premium?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Copper interconnect wall forces costly optical migration?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Equipment-maker China revenue cliff as controls bite?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if China dumps mature-node chips, crushing legacy-fab margins?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI PC over-build leaves a channel inventory hangover?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stranded-asset risk: obsolete GPUs strand mid-depreciation?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Sovereign-AI export limits fragment the accelerator market?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if Accelerator double-ordering reverses into a demand vacuum?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if US-China decouple chip supply chains, raising structural costs?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Comprehensive US-China deal eases tariffs and Taiwan tension?
21%▼ 1–3 years
What if Broad Asia détente: Taiwan, Korea and the SCS all cool together?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if China cracked sub-5nm chips on its own?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China halted its rare-earth and gallium exports?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Washington sharply tightens controls on advanced AI chips to China and closes third-country loopholes?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if US bans all advanced-AI chip sales to China?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth processing technology exports?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if China graphite-and-magnet retaliation answers US chip curbs?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if China engineers a 5nm-class breakthrough despite sanctions?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan grid/water crunch throttles fab utilization?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Foundry overcapacity glut as everyone built fabs at once?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI antitrust action forces accelerator-bundling remedies?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wafer-scale engine disrupts rack-scale GPU economics?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if PC demand falls off a cliff once the refresh cycle ends?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if tightened US chip export controls choke China's AI and tech ambitions?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Beijing bans rare-earth exports and chokes defense, EV and wind-turbine supply chains?
19%▼ 6–18 months
What if Memory-chip glut pressures SK Hynix despite a Korea peace?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if West tightens tech-export controls on China bloc?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Chip-equipment export ban widens to allies?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if China rhardens dual-use end-user rules on critical metals?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Hyperscaler capex guidance cut sparks AI-supply-chain rout?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Semiconductor glut: memory prices crash on overcapacity?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if 'AI is a bubble' capex freeze cascades down the stack?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Photonic/optical compute startup leapfrogs GPU economics?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Substrate/ABF shortage chokes high-end AI packaging?
19%▲ 3–10 years
What if Next-gen ASIC efficiency leap reshapes mining competitiveness?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tech-bloc bifurcation hard-codes two standards?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if China-Taiwan economic blockade tail re-prices semis?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bismuth and indium curbs hit solders and displays?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if GPU resale glut: secondary-market prices collapse?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if allies are forced to match a US chipmaking-tool export ban?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if SMIC reaches TSMC-class 5nm economics without EUV?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if a China downturn slashes Korean semiconductor and machinery exports?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China bans rare-earth exports to retaliate against tech restrictions?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US imposes tariffs on imported chips and chip-containing goods to reshore fabrication?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China Coast Guard 'customs quarantine' of Taiwan's Kinmen?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China retaliatory tech curbs squeeze ASML/Applied in Asia?
17%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan-Korea reconciliation thaw unlocks supply-chain cooperation?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if China adds gallium-germanium-graphite export bans?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Full US-China tech decoupling fractures supply chains?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex peak: spending plateaus and supplier growth stalls?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI-capex air-pocket: one quarter of guidance freezes orders?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Single-supplier EUV chokepoint disrupts leading-edge roadmap?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Semiconductor equipment air-pocket as fab build pauses?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tooling-software backdoor scare freezes fab equipment trust?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI demand pull-forward leaves a 2026 air-pocket in chip orders?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Mining-rig oversupply crushes hardware-maker margins?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if China sinks a Philippine ship in the South China Sea?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if M23 seizes Congo's tin and tungsten belt?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US bans outbound investment in Chinese AI and semiconductors?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if a memory-chip downturn slashes Samsung and SK Hynix earnings and Korean export receipts?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if China escalates rare-earth export controls and chokes magnet supply?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI accelerator demand rolls over, triggering a semiconductor downcycle of 30%+?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Netherlands halts EUV servicing and new DUV lithography sales to China?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Beijing retaliates against chip equipment controls by curbing mature-node chip exports?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if US 'strategic clarity' pledge to defend Taiwan raises the heat?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if US escalates chip Section-232 tariff to 100%?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if China quarantine of Taiwan halts chip flow?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan undersea-cable cut isolates fabs from order flow?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Intel exits leading-edge chipmaking and goes fabless?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if two major clouds report AI services revenue well below expectations for two quarters?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if the chipmaker-to-model-lab-to-cloud financing loop unwinds as one link defaults?
14%▲ 3–10 years
What if US- and China-led technology stacks harden into incompatible blocs?
14%▲ 3–10 years
What if chronic water scarcity constrains data-center cooling in the US Southwest?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if a typhoon cluster disrupts ports and electronics factories across East Asia?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Tech-capex bust deflation: AI overbuild collapses spending and prices?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if two or more hyperscalers slash AI capex guidance by a third?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if a loss of faith in near-term AI capability triggers a multi-year capex collapse?
13%▲ 3–10 years
What if AI overcapacity requires a decade to digest, mimicking the post-2000 fiber glut?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if China and Japan restrict photoresists and neon gas essential to chip lithography?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US bars American capital and talent from advanced Chinese semiconductor and AI ventures?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if China declares a Taiwan Strait ADIZ over the median line?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a mega-earthquake strikes Tokyo or California?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if China declares an inspection zone in the Taiwan Strait?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a renewed crackdown forces China's tech platforms to deleverage and cut jobs?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if escalating US-China tech restrictions disrupt global electronics supply chains both ways?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global AI-capex bust collapses demand for semiconductors and chip equipment?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a simultaneous chip downturn and real-estate PF crisis hits Korea at the same time?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if synchronized falls in chip, auto and petrochemical exports tip Korea into recession?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if China tightens graphite export licenses and starves non-Chinese gigafactories?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Indonesian and Myanmar tin supply disruptions spike electronics solder costs?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if chipmaker vendor financing to AI customers sours as those customers miss revenue?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Nvidia sells off 30%+ on demand and competition fears, dragging the S&P lower?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if efficient open-weight models slash compute demand and undermine the hardware build-out?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if disclosures reveal AI chip demand was largely funded by the chipmaker itself?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a model lab defaults on multi-year cloud-compute purchase commitments?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if tightened US export controls on advanced AI chips disrupt supply and re-rate hardware names?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if enterprises pause AI spending while waiting for cheaper next-gen models?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a full Western embargo on frontier AI accelerators bifurcates the global compute stack?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Western tech export controls and Chinese mineral counter-controls escalate into a mutual export-control spiral?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sweeping US Entity List expansion cuts off Chinese tech firms?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if export controls on chip-design software and AI models escalate?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's subsidised AI-chip push floods mature-node markets with overcapacity?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US tariffs Chinese electronics routed through Mexico?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Taiwan drought forces water rationing at semiconductor fabs?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Chinese cyberattack dark-starts Taiwan's power grid?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if US-China Busan truce extended past Nov 2026?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Trade-war détente sparks SOX/SMH melt-up?
12%▼ 0–6 months
What if Malaysia Penang/Johor semis FDI tops $25bn in a year?
12%▲ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan Strait quarantine spikes the chip risk premium?
11%▼ 0–6 months
What if Nvidia's next-generation chips pile up in a glut?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if synthetic-diamond chips upend the silicon industry?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if a semiconductor downturn stresses Asian tech-hardware credit?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if hyperscalers write down billions in under-utilized AI accelerators?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if collapsing per-token inference prices make the AI capex uneconomic?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if TSMC cuts capex guidance as advanced-node AI orders hit an air pocket?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if high-bandwidth memory capacity overshoots AI demand, collapsing HBM prices?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global AI-capex bust hammers Asian supply-chain equities from TSMC to Samsung?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if plunging inference costs make recently deployed AI infrastructure uneconomic?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if second-hand accelerators flood the market, collapsing GPU resale values?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if China seizes Taiwan's Pratas (Dongsha) atoll?
11%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan-strait shock freezes ASEAN semis and trade flows?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US banned all advanced AI chips from China?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if IT and AI profitability reverse sharply, dragging Japan's tech sector down?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a deep semiconductor downturn stresses banks across Korea, Singapore and Malaysia together?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China export controls on antimony and tungsten choke Western munitions supply chains?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if China's near-total control of rare-earth processing leaves Western magnet supply hostage?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if combined tin and tantalum supply disruptions squeeze thin electronics-input markets?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Broadcom's AI-chip guidance disappoints, re-rating the semiconductor cohort?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if simultaneous fab expansions create leading-edge chip overcapacity just as AI orders cool?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI chip over-ordering reverses into a double-ordering bust?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if hyperscaler in-house chips erode merchant GPU demand faster than expected?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if investigations into round-tripped AI spending trigger SEC scrutiny and collapse demand?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if China restricts rare-earth and gallium exports critical to chip manufacturing?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a sovereign AI fragmentation scramble splinters supply chains and strands capacity?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a US AI correction drags European semiconductor and software names sharply lower?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if the AI-capex bust the BoJ warned about hits Japanese chip-equipment exporters?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a model-efficiency breakthrough collapses compute demand and voids the chip order book?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if over-ordered AI networking optics glut the channel as data-center build-out slows?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if evidence that AI capex has peaked triggers a sell-the-peak rotation out of beneficiaries?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if government chip-fab subsidy clawbacks strain AI project finance during a downturn?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if AI chipmakers and OEMs take large inventory write-downs as prices fall?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if a glut of AI compute drives service prices toward zero, destroying the revenue base?
10%▲ 3–10 years
What if a PRC invasion of Taiwan triggers sweeping sanctions on China and a global recession?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA full naval blockade chokes Taiwan's 11-day LNG buffer?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if Matsu internet blackout after both subsea cables cut?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if Beijing imposes a naval 'inspection zone' on Taiwan shipping?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA seizes a Taiwan outlying island; Strait LNG insurers exit?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China re-imposes its gallium and germanium export ban?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a TSMC packaging bottleneck caps AI chip output?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a memory shortage forces a chipmaker to miss shipments?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a sting shuts down a Southeast Asian GPU smuggling ring?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a contamination disaster idles TSMC's Arizona fab for months?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China quarantines Taiwan by inspecting every inbound ship?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China severs Taiwan's undersea internet cables?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China bars foreign chip engineers from leaving?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US chip-tool ban reaches mature 14 and 28nm nodes?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US extends HBM memory curbs further downstream?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the US cuts off chip-design software to China?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China reinstates a full gallium and germanium ban?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if the Dutch halt ASML servicing of chip machines in China?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Japan weaponizes its photoresist and etching-gas exports?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if twin supertyphoons flood Taiwan's and Japan's chip fabs?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if falling AI valuations crater SoftBank's leveraged tech portfolio?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if a semiconductor downturn hammers the chip stocks Japanese banks hold?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if escalating semiconductor export controls disrupt Japan's chip-equipment exports?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a global semiconductor downturn hits Singapore's manufacturing and re-exports?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if semiconductor equipment orders from ASML and peers collapse sharply?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if a single Nvidia earnings miss erases over a trillion in market cap?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if an AI bellwether warns on demand after-hours and gaps down 15%+?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a cross-strait crisis disrupts TSMC output, choking the global AI-chip supply chain?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if escalating controls cut US chipmakers off from the China market?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if coordinated allied export controls harden into rival technology blocs?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Korea's and Taiwan's chip-heavy markets fall together on an AI demand bust?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japanese semiconductor-equipment makers see AI-driven orders collapse?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if emerging-Asia electronics suppliers face order cancellations as the AI capex cycle turns?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if AI hardware suppliers report mass order cancellations within a single quarter?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if hyperscalers swing from raising to cutting AI-capex guidance within two quarters?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if a price war in AI accelerators collapses incumbent chip margins?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China halts gallium and germanium exports and disrupts chip and fiber-optic production worldwide?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if an abrupt rule change halts AI-chip exports to China overnight?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US and allies formalise a multilateral chip export-control regime against China?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Undersea cables to Taiwan severed by 'fishing' vessels?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if PLA 'Joint Sword' drill encircles Taiwan, halts air corridors?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China tightens gallium/germanium ban on chip toolmakers?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan cable cuts plus ADIZ trigger a marine-insurance freeze?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Peninsula war scare disrupts Samsung/SK Hynix memory output?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Simultaneous Taiwan + Korea crises overwhelm US bandwidth?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Asia chip-supply scare on combined Taiwan+Korea tension?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Taiwan grey-zone squeeze drives a structural TSM risk discount?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if China mines approaches to a Taiwan port in coercion campaign?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US-China truce collapses at the tariff cliff?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Truce holds on tariffs but chip war re-escalates?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US slaps Section-232 semiconductor tariff at 25%?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China imposes full rare-earth & magnet embargo?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Chip-war shock drives 20% SOX drawdown?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if NVDA China-revenue cliff on new license freeze?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if US chip-diversion probe slaps curbs on Malaysian data centers?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if Malaysia E&E export slump on global tech inventory glut?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China antimony export curb spikes prices over 2,600%?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China samarium export halt grounds defense magnet supply?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if China critical-metals export-control escalation rattles markets?
9%▲ 0–6 months
What if DeepSeek-style single-day $1T AI wipeout on cheap-model shock?
9%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan mega-quake severs advanced-node chip supply?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Taiwan earthquake shut down TSMC's most advanced fabs?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if the PLA seizes Taiwan's Kinmen islands?
8%▲ Tail risk
What if China attempts a decapitation strike on Taipei?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global semiconductor downturn hits Malaysia's large electronics-export base?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if Taiwan's index, dominated by a single AI-chip giant, suffers an outsized AI selloff?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a PLA blockade of Taiwan halts advanced-chip output and major container traffic?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if China imposes a customs quarantine on Taiwan that throttles chip flows below the threshold for Western military response?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a North Korean military crisis disrupts South Korean chip, auto and shipbuilding output?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA blockade forces TSMC fab idling; global chip shock?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fatal PLA-Taiwan air collision near the median line?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA missile splashes in Taiwan's waters off Kaohsiung port?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fatal CCG ramming of a Taiwan coast-guard vessel off Kinmen?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA seizes Taiwan-held Itu Aba in the Spratlys?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if China imposes a Taiwan no-fly zone, halting commercial aviation?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if Combined Taiwan blockade + Korea provocation crater Asian markets?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA grey-zone blockade triggers a Taiwan capital flight and TWD crisis?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if TSMC supply shock: blockade cuts ~90% of leading-edge logic?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if China blockades Taiwan and chokes the chip supply?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if a chip-grade neon gas shortage halts lithography?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if an abrupt AI leader CEO departure triggers a sharp sector-wide selloff?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a single cloud outage simultaneously disrupts claims, pricing and trading across many insurers?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Taiwan contingency cuts off TSMC advanced-node supply and freezes global electronics production?
7%▲ 0–6 months
What if PLA Navy fires warning shots at US destroyer in the Strait?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA amphibious mobilization triggers a Taiwan invasion scare?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA blockade idles fabs; global AI buildout stalls on chip famine?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if North-South war scare empties Seoul markets in a capital flight?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan declares independence and upends the global order?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if China launches a full invasion of Taiwan?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if an AI-investment bust collapses tech lending and data-center financing at banks?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if a Taiwan Strait contingency severs Japan's chip and trade links to the region?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if Taiwan invasion attempt triggers a global market crash?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if PLA missile barrage on Taiwan airfields opens a kinetic conflict?