What if Industrial re-acceleration: PMIs cross 52, short-cycle rebounds?
Manufacturing PMIs break decisively above 52 as restocking and capex revive; short-cycle industrials beat and the group re-rates on an early-cycle recovery.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Manufacturing PMIs break decisively above 52 as restocking and capex revive; short-cycle industrials beat and the group re-rates on an early-cycle recovery. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.9–+1.54% · other way +4.67% (n=5) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.46–+13.05% · other way -2.01% (n=11) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.44–+0.46% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.7–+2.35% · other way -2.25% (n=5) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.29% · other way +0.64% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.34–+0.85% · other way +11.03% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.19–+3.1% · other way +2.64% (n=7) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.02–+0.19% · other way +0.78% (n=11) |
| 10 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.02–+0.27% · other way -4.02% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.16–+0.79% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.74–+12.1% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.54–+1.44% · other way +0.26% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 73% | 38 | 0.35 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.3% · 5d +2.0% | 56% | 37 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -6.8% | 56% | 37 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 38 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 56% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 38 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 37 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.2% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.9% | 54% | 38 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |