What if Inflation-targeting abandonment: a major central bank lifts its target?
A major central bank formally raises its inflation target to accommodate fiscal reality, an institutional capitulation that de-anchors expectations and bids gold.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major central bank formally raises its inflation target to accommodate fiscal reality, an institutional capitulation that de-anchors expectations and bids gold. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -1.76–+2.23% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +10bp hist -8.53–+28.36% · other way +5.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.48–-0.13% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.21–+0.1% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 5 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +8bp hist -7.7–+22.99% · other way +6.3% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.31–+2.46% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.11–+1.09% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.07–+3.06% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.79–+0.5% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.2–+5.22% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.59–+7.4% · other way +22.86% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.76–+0.93% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 13 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+0.23% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.3% | 100% | 5 | 0.78 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.2% | 80% | 5 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.8% | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 80% | 5 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.0% | 80% | 5 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +22bp · 5d +4bp | 70% | 11 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 5 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.6% | 60% | 5 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.7% | 60% | 12 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d +30.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 5 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 5 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.7% | 60% | 5 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +17bp · 5d +2bp | 56% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |