What if Intel exits leading-edge chipmaking and goes fabless?
Intel quitting sub-2nm and going fabless concentrates all leading-edge production at TSMC — paradoxically a TSMC pricing-power positive long-term, but the tape reads the supply-fragility/AI-capex doubt and marks the complex down near-term. Rhymes with the AMD-spins-off-GlobalFoundries era when ceding leading-edge reshaped the foundry map. Forward angle: single-source leading edge raises Taiwan-concentration tail risk — bullish TSMC margins, bearish the system's geopolitical resilience.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Intel abandons sub-2nm manufacturing and goes fabless, ceding leading-edge production entirely to TSMC. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.24–+0.28% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.21–+3.27% · other way +3.99% (n=12) |
| 3 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–-0.11% · other way -3.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–+0.84% · other way +0.76% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.88–+3.23% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 6 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.88–+0.38% · other way +3.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.83–+1.51% · other way -5.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.16–+0.34% · other way +1.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.75–+0.71% · other way -3.46% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.41–+0.57% · other way -1.21% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | · |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 30 | 0.05 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 38% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.0% | 48% | 33 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.4% | 50% | 30 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.9% | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.9% | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 47% | 34 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Intel abandoning leading-edge entirely is strategic capitulation; fighting 18A hard, full exit unlikely soon. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.