What if TSMC Arizona 2nm yields hit parity, anchoring US supply?
Arizona 2nm yields reach Taiwan parity ahead of schedule, anchoring a domestic leading-edge base, de-risking the AI supply chain and supporting US fab and chip equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Arizona 2nm yields reach Taiwan parity ahead of schedule, anchoring a domestic leading-edge base, de-risking the AI supply chain and supporting US fab and chip equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.68–+3.01% · other way -2.59% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.26–+1.99% · other way -0.68% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.13–+1.41% · other way +2.12% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.09–+1.26% · other way +0.31% (n=12) |
| 5 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.04–+0.91% · other way -1.83% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.19–+1.29% · other way -10.4% (n=11) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -7.19–+20.79% · other way +8.04% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.72–+0.73% · other way -2.49% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.49–+0.72% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.03–+0.69% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.68–+2.37% · other way -10.05% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.15–+0.28% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.69–+3.86% · other way -6.01% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.6% | 72% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 67% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 40 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.3% | 70% | 40 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +0bp | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | · |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +19.0% · 5d +1.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |