What if a string of broken IPOs slams the new-issue window shut?
Three IPO breaks below issue freezing the new-issue calendar is a sentiment/risk-appetite event that strands late-stage VC marks — modest broad risk-off, sharpest in the most speculative high-beta (crypto, unprofitable tech). The 2022 IPO drought (after high-profile 2021 breaks) is the analogue: the window shut for ~18 months, repricing private marks down. The bank-crisis analogues overstate it; this is a primary-market freeze with limited secondary contagion, best expressed as caution on pre-profit growth names.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Three high-profile IPO breaks below issue price freeze the new-issue calendar, stranding late-stage VC marks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.