What if Israel revives its judicial overhaul and reservists refuse to serve?
A reactivated Israeli judicial overhaul is a shekel/TA-35 instability trade: reservist refusals and protest hit ILS and Israeli equities on governance and security-readiness fears. Direct analogue is the 2023 overhaul fight, when the shekel weakened ~10-15% and the BoI flagged risk before the war eclipsed it. Israel's tech-export base and US capital ties mean the channel is FX plus foreign-investor strike — the US-tech cascade here is mislabeled noise.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Reactivated overhaul triggers reservist refusals and mass protest, shekel and TA-35 sell off on instability. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.