What if persistently high energy costs erode the competitiveness of Italy's manufacturing exporters?
Persistently high energy costs erode the competitiveness of Italy's manufacturing exporters versus lower-cost rivals, widening the trade gap and dragging on growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistently high energy costs erode the competitiveness of Italy's manufacturing exporters versus lower-cost rivals, widening the trade gap and dragging on growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.71–-0.08% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–+0.84% · other way +0.57% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.5–+0.41% · other way -0.79% (n=11) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.6–+0.44% · other way +0.81% (n=11) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.66–+0.45% · other way -0.74% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.46–+0.47% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.21–+0.16% · other way -2.82% (n=10) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–-0.1% · other way -2.31% (n=11) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.96–+1.43% · other way +1.04% (n=11) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.72–+0.38% · other way -0.48% (n=11) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.93–+0.1% · other way +3.7% (n=11) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.83–+0.07% · other way -3.83% (n=11) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–-0.1% · other way -0.75% (n=11) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.6–+0.04% · other way -1.08% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 32 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 32 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 21 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 32 | 0.16 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.1% | 59% | 21 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 31 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +2.0% | 58% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 57% | 31 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |