What if Jet-fuel crack spike squeezes Delta and United fuel costs?
A blowout in the jet-fuel crack raises non-hedged fuel costs for carriers like Delta and United, compressing airline margins and pressuring DAL and UAL even with firm passenger demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A blowout in the jet-fuel crack raises non-hedged fuel costs for carriers like Delta and United, compressing airline margins and pressuring DAL and UAL even with firm passenger demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▼ · Jet fuel ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.4–+9.33% · other way +10.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.79–+3.92% · other way +6.49% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.13–+7.11% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.77–+0.18% · other way +27.66% (n=12) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.4–+0.35% · other way +4.65% (n=11) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.2–+0.47% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.77–+2.6% · other way +7.67% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.31–+0.54% · other way -0.44% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 38 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 14 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 15 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +2.9% | 56% | 25 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.6% · 5d +4.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 54% | 38 | 0.08 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +1.2% | 54% | 26 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 27 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.1% | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 47% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 25 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | · |