What if Kashagan output step-up lifts Kazakh export capacity?
Debottlenecking at the giant Kashagan field raises Kazakh crude volumes, reinforcing the non-OPEC supply build and the tenge's earnings support.
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The butterfly cascade
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Debottlenecking at the giant Kashagan field raises Kazakh crude volumes, reinforcing the non-OPEC supply build and the tenge's earnings support. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.