What if Kenya fails to roll over its 2027 eurobond?
A KENINT rollover struggle into tighter frontier funding forces a costly buyback as yields blow out — short the front Kenya eurobond, watch KES and the EMBI Kenya line. The direct rhyme is Kenya's own early-2024 scramble that needed a pricey new issue to retire the June-2024 maturity. Kenya leans on the IMF, World Bank, and Gulf/Chinese bilateral support to bridge maturities; tighter global funding raises rollover risk for the whole frontier-Africa complex. The generic high-yield/Solana cascade understates the Kenya-specific refinancing channel.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Nairobi struggles to refinance its next KENINT maturity amid tighter frontier funding, forcing a costly buyback as yields blow out. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.