What if Kenya geothermal expansion cuts the fuel-import bill?
Scaling Rift Valley geothermal power displaces fuel imports, narrowing Kenya's trade gap and supporting the shilling.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Scaling Rift Valley geothermal power displaces fuel imports, narrowing Kenya's trade gap and supporting the shilling. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.39–+0.06% · other way -5.33% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.61–+1.11% · other way -7.1% (n=8) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.56–-0.18% · other way -3.39% (n=8) |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.28–-0.08% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.08–+0.71% · other way +21.46% (n=8) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.47–+0.2% · other way -1.33% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.02–+1.15% · other way +10.65% (n=8) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.02–+4.61% · other way -1.67% (n=5) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.3% · other way -4.32% (n=8) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -6.3–+14.06% · other way +2.99% (n=8) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.07–+0.66% · other way -0.58% (n=10) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.05–+0.22% · other way -0.56% (n=8) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.72–+2.02% · other way -1.39% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 64% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -5.5% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.7% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +13.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |