What if synchronized falls in chip, auto and petrochemical exports tip Korea into recession?
A synchronized fall in chip, auto and petrochemical exports tips Korea into an export-led recession, lifting corporate-loan delinquencies and forcing fiscal stimulus and BoK support.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A synchronized fall in chip, auto and petrochemical exports tips Korea into an export-led recession, lifting corporate-loan delinquencies and forcing fiscal stimulus and BoK support. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.45–-0.08% · other way -0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.57–+1.92% · other way +17.67% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -8.32–+0.86% · other way -16.24% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.31–+-0.0% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–-0.28% · other way -0.26% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -7.99–+1.73% · other way +1.84% (n=9) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.56–-0.02% · other way +0.83% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.52–+5.81% · other way -5.18% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.57–+0.53% · other way +5.12% (n=10) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.22–+0.6% · other way -2.02% (n=11) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.41–-0.19% · other way -1.13% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.01% · other way +-0.0% (n=11) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.11–+0.21% · other way +1.23% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -5.6% | 76% | 24 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 33 | 0.28 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -4.3% | 67% | 25 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +1.1% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.8% | 60% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 33 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.8% | 57% | 33 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |