What if heavy BoK FX intervention draws market focus on reserve adequacy and accelerates outflows?
Heavy BoK FX intervention to slow the won triggers market focus on reserve adequacy as usable reserves fall, paradoxically accelerating outflows and forcing macroprudential FX controls.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Heavy BoK FX intervention to slow the won triggers market focus on reserve adequacy as usable reserves fall, paradoxically accelerating outflows and forcing macroprudential FX controls. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.