What if a simultaneous chip downturn and real-estate PF crisis hits Korea at the same time?
A simultaneous memory-chip downturn and real-estate PF crisis hits Korea, compounding export and domestic-credit losses so that even D-SIB banks see capital ratios fall and credit growth turns negative.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A simultaneous memory-chip downturn and real-estate PF crisis hits Korea, compounding export and domestic-credit losses so that even D-SIB banks see capital ratios fall and credit growth turns negative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -4.81–+0.8% · other way +9.74% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.85–-0.46% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -19.51–+2.21% · other way -16.95% (n=10) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.03–+0.33% · other way +2.2% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.19–-0.13% · other way +0.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.97–+3.25% · other way -6.37% (n=12) |
| 8 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.66–-0.27% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.78–+0.89% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -9.19–+4.04% · other way +0.75% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.38–+2.38% · other way +2.52% (n=11) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.59–-0.3% · other way -1.32% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.88–+0.32% · other way -1.37% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.76–+0.43% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -15.5% · 5d -7.6% | 100% | 12 | 0.66 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.5% · 5d -3.3% | 69% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -1.7% | 67% | 15 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.0% | 66% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.0% | 66% | 32 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +3.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 32 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -14bp · 5d -5bp | 58% | 36 | 0.15 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 23 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.0% | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -3.1% | 54% | 35 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -3.4% | 55% | 33 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |