What if large-bank capital ratios fall 3 points in the steepest stress since CCAR began?
Stressed CET1 ratios fall ~2.5–3pp across the 30+ CCAR banks, the steepest aggregate capital drawdown since the test's inception, forcing dividend/buyback halts.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Stressed CET1 ratios fall ~2.5–3pp across the 30+ CCAR banks, the steepest aggregate capital drawdown since the test's inception, forcing dividend/buyback halts. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.