What if LGFV refinancing stress freezes China local-government construction?
Mounting local-government financing-vehicle debt and shrinking land revenue force a halt to infrastructure and construction projects, deepening the property-demand collapse; the credit freeze drags China growth and industrial-metals demand.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mounting local-government financing-vehicle debt and shrinking land revenue force a halt to infrastructure and construction projects, deepening the property-demand collapse; the credit freeze drags China growth and industrial-metals demand. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.97–+1.04% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.18–+0.52% · other way +0.72% (n=10) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -12.45–+2.31% · other way -6.07% (n=4) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.55–+2.32% · other way +19.86% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.28% · other way -0.37% (n=4) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.92–+0.18% · other way +2.43% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.64–+1.8% · other way -9.52% (n=10) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.67% · other way -5.48% (n=4) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -6.83–+1.78% · other way +7.57% (n=4) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–-0.01% · other way +0.26% (n=9) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–+0.02% · other way +1.76% (n=8) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.22–+1.73% · other way +14.02% (n=4) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.05% · other way +2.53% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.4% · 5d -14.2% | 71% | 20 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.5% | 68% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.9% · 5d -6.0% | 64% | 22 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.4% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |