What if Lira real appreciation as the carry trade re-anchors Turkey?
With inflation falling faster than the policy rate, the lira appreciates in real terms and becomes a marquee EM carry trade again, drawing structural foreign positioning into TRY assets.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. With inflation falling faster than the policy rate, the lira appreciates in real terms and becomes a marquee EM carry trade again, drawing structural foreign positioning into TRY assets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · FX carry appetite ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.9% hist -4.87–+1.2% · other way +0.07% (n=5) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.38–+0.52% · other way +0.53% (n=5) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -5.32–+1.24% · other way +5.4% (n=4) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.16–+0.17% · other way +0.26% (n=5) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -8.75–+2.15% · other way +5.26% (n=4) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -8.3–+2.11% · other way +16.54% (n=5) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.48% · other way -1.13% (n=9) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.46–+0.55% · other way +1.52% (n=8) |
| 10 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.07–+0.5% · other way -1.29% (n=5) |
| 11 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.81–+0.35% · other way -0.2% (n=5) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.82% · other way -1.01% (n=5) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.96–+1.31% · other way +7.87% (n=4) |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -8.0–+1.91% · other way -0.5% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -9.6% | 76% | 18 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -0.3% | 69% | 30 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 71% | 30 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -4.6% | 68% | 32 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -6.6% | 69% | 20 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.4% | 63% | 26 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d 0bp | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 59% | 30 | 0.14 | · |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 17 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d +0bp | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 31 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |