What if LNG developers re-rate as global gas-spread arbitrage widens?
Persistent Henry Hub-to-JKM/TTF spreads maximize US LNG netbacks, boosting developer margins and FID momentum; the equity complex re-rates on durable export economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Persistent Henry Hub-to-JKM/TTF spreads maximize US LNG netbacks, boosting developer margins and FID momentum; the equity complex re-rates on durable export economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.74–+0.59% · other way +7.24% (n=4) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.19–+0.93% · other way +3.83% (n=9) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.91–+8.31% · other way -0.21% (n=9) |
| 5 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.8–+2.45% · other way -6.76% (n=4) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.04–+0.35% · other way +0.44% (n=10) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.67–+0.95% · other way +16.6% (n=9) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.72–+3.72% · other way -2.13% (n=6) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.03–+0.26% · other way +0.6% (n=9) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.14–+0.71% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.1–+16.59% · other way -9.52% (n=3) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.36–+1.18% · other way +0.23% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +14.5% · 5d +3.5% | 66% | 28 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 31 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -6.8% | 56% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.5% | 56% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 44% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.9% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 44% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 44% | 31 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 45% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 33% | 36 | 0.00 | · |