What if a US Gulf Coast LNG export terminal is bombed?
Crippling a US Gulf LNG export terminal is a two-sided gas trade: US Henry Hub gluts lower (trapped molecules) while EU TTF/JKM spikes -- the NG and european_energy roots plus the fertilizer/EUR-down cascade capture this divergence well. Rhymes with the 2022 Freeport LNG explosion, which sank US gas ~ and lifted European prices for months. Transmission: Europe is now the marginal US-LNG buyer, so EUR weakens on the import-cost shock; fertilizer/ammonia and grains feed through. Forward: the Henry Hub-vs-TTF spread is the trade, not a single directional gas bet.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A terror strike cripples a major US Gulf Coast LNG export terminal, tightening global gas markets for months. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +8.0% hist -2.25–+4.16% · other way +6.89% (n=6) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.45–-0.43% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.7% hist -0.21–+1.37% · other way +4.27% (n=6) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.7% hist -1.0–+1.7% · other way +7.61% (n=6) |
| 5 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -2.32–+11.07% · other way -5.7% (n=6) |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.07% · other way +0.82% (n=6) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.2–-0.09% · other way +3.77% (n=6) |
| 8 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -1.93–+9.18% · other way -8.6% (n=6) |
| 9 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–-0.11% · other way +0.42% (n=6) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–+-0.0% · other way +0.41% (n=6) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.0–+0.25% · other way +0.13% (n=6) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–+0.08% · other way +0.0% (n=6) |
| 13 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.13–-0.01% · other way -0.32% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long NG; the realized -4% is sampled from record-output gluts and the Ukraine-transit halt (mild-winter/oversupply), the opposite regime to a US LNG export terminal being destroyed.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -3.7% | 64% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 35 | 0.25 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.21 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 31 | 0.18 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.2% ↺ fades | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 53% | 37 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.4% | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.4% | 51% | 37 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
US LNG terminal terror strike never occurred; hardened sites, structurally low tail A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.