What if a US Gulf Coast LNG export terminal is bombed?
Crippling a US Gulf LNG export terminal is a two-sided gas trade: US Henry Hub gluts lower (trapped molecules) while EU TTF/JKM spikes -- the NG and european_energy roots plus the fertilizer/EUR-down cascade capture this divergence well. Rhymes with the 2022 Freeport LNG explosion, which sank US gas ~ and lifted European prices for months. Transmission: Europe is now the marginal US-LNG buyer, so EUR weakens on the import-cost shock; fertilizer/ammonia and grains feed through. Forward: the Henry Hub-vs-TTF spread is the trade, not a single directional gas bet.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A terror strike cripples a major US Gulf Coast LNG export terminal, tightening global gas markets for months. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.