What if LNG-margin compression de-rates US export-equity multiples?
A global liquefaction glut collapses international gas spreads and contract slopes, squeezing US LNG netbacks and de-rating Cheniere and Sempra on weaker export economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global liquefaction glut collapses international gas spreads and contract slopes, squeezing US LNG netbacks and de-rating Cheniere and Sempra on weaker export economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -4.69–+4.98% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.72–+3.42% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.49–+0.75% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.27% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 6 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.3% · other way +4.09% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.64–+0.51% · other way -3.86% (n=11) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.57–+0.57% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.43% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.3% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.75–+6.94% · other way +19.1% (n=8) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.1–-0.01% · other way +0.91% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 34 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 68% | 34 | 0.32 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 26 | 0.23 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 26 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 29 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 53% | 26 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -7.2% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -4.2% | 48% | 12 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 41% | 26 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.6% | 47% | 27 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 33% | 17 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.6% · 5d +1.3% | 44% | 7 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 34 | 0.00 | · |