What if LDI selling meets thin demand for 30-year gilts and forces a sharp curve steepening?
Pension LDI selling meets thin demand for 30-year gilts, steepening the curve sharply and forcing the BoE to weigh re-entering the long-dated market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Pension LDI selling meets thin demand for 30-year gilts, steepening the curve sharply and forcing the BoE to weigh re-entering the long-dated market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Yield-curve slope ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.89–-0.28% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.85–-0.28% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.74–+0.19% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -11.5–+1.42% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–-0.03% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.59–-0.11% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist +0.79–+6.18% · other way +14.1% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.16–+1.58% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist +0.74–+5.77% · other way +14.7% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.87–+2.29% · other way +4.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.31–+0.06% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.81–+0.02% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.21–+0.15% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.2% · 5d -7.6% | 75% | 40 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.7% | 70% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.2% | 65% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -5.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -5.2% | 63% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |