Yield-curve slope
Every scenario in which yield-curve slope is a modeled driver — one risk, read across the whole library.
253 scenarios touch this risk, ranked by probability.
52%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB cuts into a fragile recovery, reflating the periphery?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM bond bull market: disinflation plus cuts drive a bull-steepener?
50%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM disinflation completes, central banks pivot to a cutting cycle?
48%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed shifts to a 'meeting-by-meeting' data-dependence that markets reward?
47%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed front-loads a faster cutting cycle than the dots imply?
47%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed leans dovish as the dual mandate tilts toward jobs?
47%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed declares the last mile won and front-loads relief cuts?
46%▼ 1–3 years
What if US revenue surprise shrinks the deficit, supply fears recede?
44%▲ 6–18 months
What if 2026 US midterms deliver divided government?
43%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB delivers a 'soft-landing' easing that revives periphery growth?
43%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoE engineers an orderly easing as UK inflation finally cracks?
42%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed independence holds; orderly easing cycle?
42%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB front-loads cuts as eurozone disinflation outpaces forecasts?
41%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed cuts its r-star estimate, anchoring a lower-for-longer regime?
40%▲ 0–6 months
What if Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing?
40%▲ 0–6 months
What if Fed skips a meeting, opening the door to a soft-landing pause?
39%▲ 1–3 years
What if BoJ executes a smooth normalization; JGB yields rise orderly?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU rearmament unlocks joint defense bonds?
37%▼ 1–3 years
What if India G-sec foreign ownership doubles past 6% on index demand?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if Term-premium normalization without crisis as supply is well-absorbed?
37%▲ 1–3 years
What if BOJ caps long-end JGB volatility with a calibrated bond-buying band?
36%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold outperforms as confidence in long-bond Treasuries fades?
35%▲ 6–18 months
What if Poland prints the EU's #2 deficit at ~6.5% of GDP?
35%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal populism steepens the curve, 30Y tops 5%?
34%▲ 6–18 months
What if Disinflationary oil glut steepens the yield curve via cuts?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan reflation success: wage-price cycle stabilizes JGB demand?
34%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan's nominal-GDP boom quietly shrinks its debt ratio?
33%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan normalizes rates smoothly without a JGB rupture?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK fiscal rules reform stabilizes gilts without austerity?
32%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM bull-steepener: rate cuts revive housing and risk together?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan's GPIF rotation back into JGBs caps the super-long curve?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK gilt issuance falls as the deficit undershoots forecasts?
32%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM term-premium mean-reversion as supply and demand re-balance?
32%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts compress bank net interest margins?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if Steeper curve revives bank net-interest-income growth?
32%▲ 6–18 months
What if A populist wins a G20 election: 15-year equity de-rate begins?
31%▼ 6–18 months
What if US fiscal commission deal restores the long-bond bid?
31%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK returns to bond-market grace as fiscal headroom rebuilds?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Japanification of the West: low r*, low inflation, bid bonds?
31%▼ 3–10 years
What if Low-r* gift lets DM sovereigns carry higher debt sustainably?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bull-steepener as Fed cuts into a soft economy?
30%▼ 0–6 months
What if T-bill rollover glut floods the front end, repo backs up?
30%▲ 6–18 months
What if Soft-landing disinflation: Fed cuts into growth, VIX collapses?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Midterm sweep unlocks fresh fiscal stimulus?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Curve dis-inverts into a steepening expansion?
29%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized EM disinflation enables a coordinated easing rally?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Pension de-risking floods US long bonds, term premium fades?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if Japan lifers anchor the super-long sector at higher yields?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if BoE ends active gilt sales, removing a supply overhang?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Coordinated CB guidance caps DM term premia and steadies curves?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Treasury-yield peak unlocks a record rotation into long bonds?
29%▼ 1–3 years
What if Japan's primary-balance target met, sustainability fears recede?
29%▼ 6–18 months
What if ECB and BoE coordinate orderly QT, sovereign curves stay calm?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed shifts purchases toward bills to rebuild a short-dated book?
29%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed pre-commits to a clear reaction-function rule, calming rate vol?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Korea NPS pension exhaustion path moved to ~2055, KTB supply jumps?
29%▲ 3–10 years
What if Goodhart-Pradhan reversal: aging pushes r* AND inflation UP?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Real-yield repricing on fiscal-dominance fears?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if Poland defense buildout pushes spending past 4.7% of GDP?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB 30y hits a record as BoJ QT meets debt-funded stimulus?
28%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized G7 easing cycle steepens curves and lifts risk?
28%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ rate hikes draw Japanese capital home from US and EU bonds?
28%▼ 3–10 years
What if Aging keeps the Fed's long-run dot anchored near 2.5%?
28%▲ 3–10 years
What if Italy's pension bill above 16% of GDP reignites BTP-Bund stress?
27%▼ 6–18 months
What if USD/Treasuries safe-haven bid on trade shock?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Brazil election-risk repricing hits the real and rates?
27%▲ 6–18 months
What if Pre-election giveaways blow India's fiscal-deficit target?
27%▲ 0–6 months
What if US 30y auction tails 5bp+ as dealers choke on duration?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if PBOC launches outright Treasury-bond trading as a new QE-style tool?
27%▲ 3–10 years
What if Retiree dissaving wave drives r* up, ending the bond bull?
27%▲ 1–3 years
What if Italy fiscal-populism relapse reopens the BTP-Bund spread?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japan debt-funded stimulus spikes the 30y JGB yield past 3.5%?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?
26%▲ 0–6 months
What if Powell presser validates the dovish pivot, lighting a melt-up?
26%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed-cut bull-steepening drives a rotation into long-duration equities?
26%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed adopts nominal-GDP targeting, overhauling the reaction function?
26%▲ 3–10 years
What if Germany's pay-as-you-go pension forces a tax-or-borrow squeeze?
26%▼ 3–10 years
What if Stagnation camp wins: deflation scare drives a duration melt-up?
25%▲ 6–18 months
What if OAT-Bund spread blows past 100bp on French political deadlock?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed institutionalizes faster cuts via a lower asymmetric loss function?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Rising r* meets high debt, igniting DM debt-sustainability fears?
25%▲ 3–10 years
What if Social Security reform deal funds benefits via heavier Treasury supply?
25%▲ 1–3 years
What if Brazil populist turn widens sovereign spreads, weakens BRL?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Poland presidential gridlock stalls fiscal consolidation?
24%▼ 0–6 months
What if Oil-shock inflation flattens the curve via a hawkish hold?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Central banks tolerate inflation overshoot to ease the debt burden?
24%▼ 6–18 months
What if Fed ends QT and stabilizes reserves, easing Treasury indigestion?
24%▲ 1–3 years
What if Bank-equity re-rating on steeper curve and easing provisions?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoE cuts into sticky UK services inflation, weakening sterling?
24%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ exit repatriation drags US Treasury and credit demand lower?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven primary deficits collide with a rising-r* world?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging entitlements push US mandatory spending past 70% of outlays?
24%▼ 3–10 years
What if Corporate DB-pension de-risking floods the long-bond market with demand?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging-driven healthcare costs blow out US fiscal projections?
24%▲ 3–10 years
What if Aging DM bloc's combined pension gap reframes sovereign risk?
23%▲ 6–18 months
What if JGB 40y dislocation: super-long auction draws collapse?
23%▲ 3–10 years
What if Inflationary-aging regime crushes the long end, bear-steepens curves?
23%▲ 3–10 years
What if A large US public pension cuts its assumed return, exposing the gap?
23%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan fiscal-dominance fear steepens JGB curve, weakens JPY?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if A fourth agency strips the US of its last AAA rating?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bull-steepener relief: cuts begin, curve dis-inverts, banks lead?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB cut revives eurozone bank-lending and a small-cap re-rating?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if Restored Fed independence compresses the US term premium?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if Japanese mega-bank earnings surge on the end of NIRP?
22%▲ 6–18 months
What if French far-right budget standoff widens OAT-Bund spread?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if US grand fiscal bargain restores the debt anchor (good)?
22%▼ 3–10 years
What if Coordinated 2% billionaire minimum tax eases deficits (good)?
22%▼ 1–3 years
What if UK fiscal-credibility rebuild compresses the gilt risk premium (good)?
22%▲ 1–3 years
What if EU far-right wave fragments fiscal and migration policy?
21%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bear-flattener as inflation forces higher-for-longer?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if US 30y breaks 5.5% on term-premium spiral, not Fed?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Stablecoin reserve demand becomes a structural T-bill buyer?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if Post-Powell chair: a dovish loyalist sparks an independence scare?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if FOMC dissents multiply, fracturing the committee's policy signal?
21%▲ 1–3 years
What if BOJ normalization lures Japanese savings home, draining global duration?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Reversal camp wins: bond-bear regime as r* breaks decisively higher?
21%▲ 6–18 months
What if French pension-reform reversal spooks OAT investors?
21%▲ 3–10 years
What if Dutch-style pension reform forces a global duration reshuffle?
21%▼ 3–10 years
What if Bipartisan entitlement fix removes a structural fiscal cloud (good)?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Loyalist Fed chair breaches central-bank independence?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE defense-spending surge widens regional deficits?
20%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoJ stealth taper of JGB buying jolts the long end?
20%▼ 6–18 months
What if Coordinated DM QT pause stabilizes long-end yields globally?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed 'last-mile' stubbornness keeps policy too tight too long?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed balance-sheet losses spark a political solvency row?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed governor confirmation fight injects policy-path uncertainty?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed greenlights bank capital-rule relief, easing credit conditions?
20%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed cuts but long yields rise as a term-premium 'conundrum' bites?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if Independence-loss premium steepens the US curve and bids gold?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if BOJ becomes the swing factor in global duration as it exits ZIRP?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if A sovereign raises retirement age, easing its long-run debt path?
20%▼ 1–3 years
What if Brazil fiscal-anchor restoration re-rates Brazilian assets (good)?
20%▲ 1–3 years
What if US entitlement-funding cliff steepens long-end yields?
19%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fiscal-dominance regime shift un-anchors DM breakevens?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if German debt-brake reform unlocks Bund supply and investment?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Eurozone disinflation undershoot: ECB cuts as core slides under 2%?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if Credibility-restored bond rally: anchored expectations re-rate duration?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed forward-guidance error wrong-foots the entire rates market?
19%▲ 6–18 months
What if US Fed-independence scare lifts term premium, gold and BTC?
19%▼ 1–3 years
What if France stability-and-reform deal narrows the OAT-Bund spread (good)?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ QT + heavy issuance steepen the JGB curve, hit global duration?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if German fiscal bazooka funds Ukraine and rearmament?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if ECB cuts as a peace-driven disinflation takes hold?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if China dumps US Treasuries as a sanctions weapon?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if G-sec curve bear-steepens as state-bond (SDL) supply floods?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if US net interest outlays top defense, crowding-out fear bites?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoJ YCC exit overshoots, JGB yields gap and yen carry snaps?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Yen-carry unwind from JGB shock drains global duration?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK gilt crisis 2.0: unfunded package sends 30y +150bp?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Gold dethrones bonds as the DM reserve-haven of choice?
18%▼ 1–3 years
What if DM curve bear-flattens as CBs fight inflation into a debt wall?
18%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bund safe-haven bid surges as DM fiscal fears favor German paper?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reflation cyclical barbell: energy and financials lead the cycle up?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed holds too long: restrictive policy tips the US into a hard landing?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed forced to monetize deficits as fiscal dominance takes hold?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed lets the curve re-steepen via active long-end bond sales?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if ECB ends APP/PEPP reinvestments, exposing periphery to fragmentation?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if Ratings agency flags aging-driven debt path, dings a DM sovereign?
18%▲ 3–10 years
What if Pension dis-saving thins demand for ultra-long government bonds?
18%▲ 1–3 years
What if France pension-reform protests stall fiscal consolidation?
18%▲ 6–18 months
What if UK unfunded giveaway revives gilt-vigilante pressure?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed-independence fight un-anchors long-end yields?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if State-finance stress (discom, freebies) clouds India's fiscal map?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if India interest-bill crowds out capex as debt-service rises?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bond vigilantes stage a buyers' strike on the US deficit?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Treasury shifts issuance long, duration supply shock hits?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Bund scarcity reverses as Germany ramps fiscal spending?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Swap spreads invert deeply as Treasury supply swamps balance sheets?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if US Treasury buyback program fails to stem long-end cheapening?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if US tax-cut extension reopens the deficit, supply fears resurge?
17%▲ 0–6 months
What if UK Autumn Budget triggers a mini gilt tantrum on borrowing upgrade?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Wartime-style fiscal expansion lifts DM defense borrowing and yields?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fiscal stimulus reflation boom: deficit spending lifts nominal growth?
17%▲ 1–3 years
What if Reflationary value rotation: cyclicals and small caps lead off lows?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if Fed independence shock: Treasury overrides QT in a policy clash?
17%▲ 6–18 months
What if BoE active gilt sales spike term premium in a fiscal squeeze?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if BoJ accelerates QT; fiscal worries lift the JGB term premium?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bund yields rise as peace and supply hit the haven bid?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal scare lifts term premium sharply?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan JGB scare jolts global duration?
16%▲ 0–6 months
What if BCB front-loads Selic cuts, steepening the Brazil curve bullishly?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if CEE defense-bond supply wave steepens regional curves?
16%▼ 1–3 years
What if Stealth yield-curve control spreads across DM to cap debt service?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pension and insurer de-risking shifts to gold from sovereign bonds?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Executive pressure to fire a Fed governor breaks central-bank norms?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if Fed adopts explicit yield-curve control on the 5-year point?
16%▲ 6–18 months
What if BOJ loses the JGB market as a failed auction forces emergency buying?
16%▲ 1–3 years
What if A G3 central bank monetizes deficits, breaking the inflation anchor?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US term premium hits +150bp as the moderate fiscal anchor breaks?
15%▼ 1–3 years
What if US TGA rebuild after a deal drains reserves, brief funding squeeze?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan debt-service ratio jumps as JGB yields normalize higher?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if France slips into EU excessive-deficit procedure, OAT cheapens?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if BoE active gilt sales clash with a fiscal splurge, long end buckles?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM debt wall: $3tn+ of refinancing hits at higher yields?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Foreign central banks rotate Treasury reserves into bunds and JGBs?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if France downgraded to AA-, OAT trades like a soft-core periphery?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Global duration de-rating as the 'lower-for-longer' regime dies?
15%▲ 3–10 years
What if Demographic pension wall lifts DM term premia structurally?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if US fiscal-tail premium pushes 10y real yields toward 3%?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan downgrade risk re-emerges as stimulus reopens the deficit?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Belgium fiscal slippage drags the semi-core wider with France?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized G7 bear-steepening as deficits and supply align?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Entitlement trust-fund cliff forces a US fiscal reckoning?
15%▲ 0–6 months
What if Yen intervention drains FX reserves, MoF sells US Treasuries?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if OAT slips out of the core index club, forced selling widens spreads?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if Bear-steepener scare: term premium jumps as deficits spook bonds?
15%▲ 6–18 months
What if France social unrest over austerity reignites OAT pressure?
15%▲ 1–3 years
What if Migration-fueled culture-war politics paralyzes US fiscal policy?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if the US yield curve bear-steepens violently toward 2s10s of plus 100bp?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US term premium normalizes toward 150bp, tightening conditions for duration holders?
14%▲ 6–18 months
What if Defense-spending surge widens EU deficits?
14%▼ 6–18 months
What if Bunds rally as a haven on eastern-flank escalation?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if DM 'higher-for-longer' debt service crowds out public investment?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Average-inflation-targeting overshoot: Fed lets it run, breakevens rise?
14%▲ 1–3 years
What if Bond-vigilante revolt: deficits punished with a buyers' strike?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Pakistan domestic-debt rollover stress lifts T-bill yields?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Italy debt sustainability questioned as ECB QT shrinks the bid?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Synchronized DM term-premium shock repriced across all G7 curves?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if US debt spiral self-reinforces: higher yields, wider deficit, repeat?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan's debt math cracks if 10y JGB clears 2%?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if ECB QT shrinks the BTP buyer just as a maturity wall lands?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if UK gilt remit balloons, DMO struggles to place long-dated supply?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Auction strike spreads from one DM market to another via RV desks?
13%▲ 1–3 years
What if Higher-for-longer regime: real yields anchor above 2.5% for years?
13%▲ 6–18 months
What if Brazil fiscal-populism relapse steepens curve, weakens real?
12%▼ 6–18 months
What if the 2s10s inversion persists for more than two years?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if the US investment-grade curve bear-steepens and crushes long-duration returns?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Inflate-away the debt: tolerated 4% inflation erodes real liabilities?
12%▲ 1–3 years
What if Policy-rate overshoot reversal: deep cuts as the economy cracks?
12%▲ 0–6 months
What if Fed delivers a surprise 50bp cut to get ahead of the curve?
11%▲ 6–18 months
What if LDI selling meets thin demand for 30-year gilts and forces a sharp curve steepening?
11%▲ 0–6 months
What if Term-premium shock: 10y yield jumps 100bp on supply indigestion?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if Secular inflation regime: 3-4% becomes the new normal anchor?
11%▲ 3–10 years
What if Permanent inflation premium: term structure prices 3% forever?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a violent bear steepening sends 10-year yields spiking 100 basis points?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if a hard landing triggers aggressive Fed cuts and a bull steepening of the curve?
10%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Bank of Japan fully exits yield-curve control and the 10-year JGB gaps higher?
10%▲ 1–3 years
What if sovereign wealth funds rotate out of long Treasuries into gold and bills?
9%▲ 6–18 months
What if long-run inflation expectations drift higher and central-bank credibility erodes?
8%▲ 3–10 years
What if tighter post-SWES leverage limits force UK DB schemes to cut LDI hedge ratios?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if a global bear-steepening lifts long-end yields across the US, UK, and euro area?
8%▲ 1–3 years
What if persistent fiscal dominance forces the Fed toward de-facto debt monetization?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if a sudden bear steepening whipsaws pension and insurer duration hedges?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if the global exit from yield suppression unleashes volatile term-premium rebuilding?
8%▲ 6–18 months
What if accelerated BoE gilt sales overwhelm demand and steepen the curve?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if the Fed swaps its 2% goal for a nominal-GDP target?
7%▲ 1–3 years
What if G7 bond term premiums reset higher as deficits stay wide?
7%▲ 6–18 months
What if a renewed inflation surprise pushes advanced-economy term premiums higher?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if Japan's super-long JGBs collapse as the BoJ steps back and insurer demand saturates?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if advanced economies lengthen issuance maturity and flood the long end with duration?
6%▲ 0–6 months
What if a UK gilt auction tails badly and signals a buyer strike in the gilt market?
6%▲ 1–3 years
What if removing BoJ's yield-curve control lets a long-suppressed term premium snap back violently?
6%▲ 6–18 months
What if a violent curve re-steepening defaults counterparties in levered curve trades?