What if sustained low oil drains petrostate reserves and pressures dollar pegs from Nigeria to the GCC?
A sustained oil slump drains petrostate reserves and pressures dollar pegs from Nigeria to the GCC, testing FX regimes built on oil-dollar recycling.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A sustained oil slump drains petrostate reserves and pressures dollar pegs from Nigeria to the GCC, testing FX regimes built on oil-dollar recycling. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.8–-0.08% · other way +12.56% (n=9) |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–-0.22% · other way +0.49% (n=8) |
| 3 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.64–-0.19% · other way -1.06% (n=8) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–-0.01% · other way +6.04% (n=5) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.34–-0.16% · other way +4.09% (n=5) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.29–+1.34% · other way -6.34% (n=10) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–+0.4% · other way +0.07% (n=10) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.45–+0.43% · other way +3.12% (n=5) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–-0.01% · other way -0.45% (n=8) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.56–+-0.0% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.41–-0.06% · other way -0.66% (n=9) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.35–+0.22% · other way +2.06% (n=9) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.46–+0.45% · other way -0.59% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -8.5% | 64% | 16 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.0% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |