What if Low-r* world rewards long duration as growth scarcity returns?
Persistent low growth and abundant precautionary saving from aging populations keep r* depressed, making long-dated government bonds and secular-growth equities the structural winners.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Persistent low growth and abundant precautionary saving from aging populations keep r* depressed, making long-dated government bonds and secular-growth equities the structural winners. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.88–+9.05% |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.19–+1.24% |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.0–+0.82% |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.61–+1.3% |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.05–+0.31% |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.7–+1.66% |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.42–+0.46% |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -2.82–+5.32% |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.14–+1.05% |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -3bp hist -2.94–+5.17% |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.03–+0.16% |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.01–+0.38% |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.35–+1.41% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +0.5% | 77% | 39 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +-0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 37 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -6.2% | 69% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -5.7% | 65% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 63% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +5bp | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.9% | 63% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 37 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.7% | 56% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |