What if Maghreb instability raises European energy-and-migration risk?
Renewed instability across the Maghreb raises both gas-supply and migration risk for southern Europe; European energy and risk premia rise as a dual security-and-supply concern takes hold.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed instability across the Maghreb raises both gas-supply and migration risk for southern Europe; European energy and risk premia rise as a dual security-and-supply concern takes hold. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.0% hist +1.22–+4.92% · other way -13.09% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.46–-0.53% · other way +0.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.06–-0.54% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.96–-0.43% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.49–+1.22% · other way +12.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.8–-0.22% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.41–+1.38% · other way -1.45% (n=10) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.98–-0.05% · other way +1.87% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.22–+0.89% · other way +5.69% (n=10) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.11–+0.5% · other way +0.94% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.95–+0.91% · other way +9.87% (n=10) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.2–+0.36% · other way -2.17% (n=12) |
| 14 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.34–-0.18% · other way -0.73% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.8% | 75% | 38 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +2.2% | 65% | 19 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 64% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -4.4% | 63% | 29 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.9% | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +1.2% | 59% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |