What if a major central bank abandons forward guidance?
Scrapping forward guidance raises rate volatility and steepens the implied-vol term structure; high-beta tech sells first and risk-parity trims as cross-asset vol rises. The analogue is the BOJ's abrupt 2022-23 communication shifts and the broader post-2021 'data-dependent' regime that lifted MOVE. The cleanest expression is long rate vol (MOVE/swaptions), not the modest equity drawdown; this is a vol-of-vol trade more than a directional one.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A leading central bank scraps forward guidance entirely after repeated misses, raising rate volatility and widening implied-vol term structure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.8% hist -6.2–+3.23% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.56–+0.41% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.17% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.88–+1.01% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.58–+0.62% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.6–+1.05% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.25–+0.8% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -10.63–+10.84% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 9 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +2bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.41% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.18–+2.88% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.14–+0.51% · other way +1.02% (n=12) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -0.16–+2.52% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.78–+0.3% · other way +0.48% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's LONG on VIX: the -11% mean is regime-biased by post-crash vol-collapse analogues (COVID -29%, Evergrande -22%); scrapping forward guidance raises rate vol — the CPI-shock analogue printed +36%.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -5.0% | 62% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 18 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 19 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d +7.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.7% | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.8% | 54% | 19 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -5.4% ↺ fades | 54% | 13 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.4% | 54% | 18 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 18 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 17 | 0.05 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 43% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +11.8% · 5d -6.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 6 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Guidance-scrapping happens but full abandonment by major CB rare in 6mo window. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.