What if Mandatory climate disclosure: TCFD/ISSB rules go global?
Wide adoption of mandatory climate-risk disclosure standards reprices high-emission firms' cost of capital upward while rewarding low-carbon leaders, shifting equity-sector flows.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Wide adoption of mandatory climate-risk disclosure standards reprices high-emission firms' cost of capital upward while rewarding low-carbon leaders, shifting equity-sector flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.44–+0.03% · other way -7.57% (n=7) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.13–+0.0% · other way -7.91% (n=7) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.45–+0.18% · other way -1.97% (n=12) |
| 4 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.23–+0.56% · other way -9.0% (n=7) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.88–+2.6% · other way +59.03% (n=7) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.87–+0.16% · other way -1.93% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.96–+3.37% · other way +28.89% (n=7) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.07–+2.48% · other way +2.92% (n=7) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.45% · other way -0.43% (n=8) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.01–+0.28% · other way +0.63% (n=4) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.11–+0.52% · other way +6.39% (n=4) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.44–+1.07% · other way +9.01% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -4.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 21 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.8% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.5% | 54% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.0% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 42% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |