What if Manganese supply squeeze on a Gabon and South Africa shock?
Disrupted manganese ore exports from Gabon and South Africa tighten a metal vital to LMFP cathodes and steel, lifting prices and pressuring battery and steel margins.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Disrupted manganese ore exports from Gabon and South Africa tighten a metal vital to LMFP cathodes and steel, lifting prices and pressuring battery and steel margins. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.44–+2.4% · other way -4.47% (n=7) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.57–-0.25% · other way -1.08% (n=7) |
| 3 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–+0.37% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.93–+0.34% · other way -9.7% (n=6) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.45–+0.11% · other way +0.3% (n=6) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.64–+7.9% · other way +1.44% (n=6) |
| 7 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.23–+0.86% · other way -11.7% (n=6) |
| 8 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.45–+0.35% · other way -1.21% (n=12) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.0–+0.61% · other way -11.13% (n=6) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.29–+0.95% · other way -9.47% (n=6) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.33–+1.42% · other way -3.63% (n=6) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.25–+0.35% · other way +8.48% (n=3) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–-0.1% · other way +0.64% (n=6) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.94–+1.53% · other way +7.38% (n=3) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 71% | 34 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.8% | 67% | 34 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 34 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.3% · 5d -3.6% ↺ fades | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.4% · 5d +2.1% | 59% | 17 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.2% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |