What if mass strikes and unrest paralyse a major economy?
Mass unrest/general strikes paralyzing a major economy is a domestic risk-off: VIX up, Nasdaq/S&P and crypto-beta (SOL/HYPE/ETH) lower, spreads wider, risk-parity deleveraging amplifying. Rhymes with France's 2023 pension-reform strikes and the 2018-19 yellow-vest episodes - localized growth/activity hits that pressured the home equity index and currency more than global beta. Transmission runs through the affected country's exporters and its bond risk premium. Forward angle: if the strike hits a critical export (ports, refining, autos), the supply-chain spillover matters more than the equity gap.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass civil unrest and general strikes paralyze a major economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.