What if mass strikes and unrest paralyse a major economy?
Mass unrest/general strikes paralyzing a major economy is a domestic risk-off: VIX up, Nasdaq/S&P and crypto-beta (SOL/HYPE/ETH) lower, spreads wider, risk-parity deleveraging amplifying. Rhymes with France's 2023 pension-reform strikes and the 2018-19 yellow-vest episodes - localized growth/activity hits that pressured the home equity index and currency more than global beta. Transmission runs through the affected country's exporters and its bond risk premium. Forward angle: if the strike hits a critical export (ports, refining, autos), the supply-chain spillover matters more than the equity gap.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Mass civil unrest and general strikes paralyze a major economy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.2% hist -1.26–+8.9% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.36–-0.54% · other way +0.12% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.92–+0.09% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.47–+9.55% · other way +26.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.07–+0.34% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.68–+0.07% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -9.62–+4.35% · other way +6.3% (n=11) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.58–-0.25% · other way +2.96% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.98–+1.61% · other way +6.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.19–+0.83% · other way +4.16% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.01–+0.39% · other way -0.6% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.61–-0.06% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.34–+17.01% · other way +20.49% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's MSTR/COIN shorts: the +16%/+11% analogues are BTC-structural-bull Mideast and 2025 tariff windows, not domestic-unrest reads — swamped channel; a general strike paralyzing a major economy is a liquidity-draining risk-off.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +16.4% · 5d +0.2% | 88% | 8 | 0.65 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.0% · 5d -10.8% | 69% | 13 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 25 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -2bp | 64% | 39 | 0.26 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -5.2% | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -5.3% | 67% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.7% | 64% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 25 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 27 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 25 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.3% · 5d +6.9% | 57% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
General strikes paralyzing a major economy recur (France); polarization elevated, moderate over 1-3yr. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.