What if a mega-earthquake strikes Tokyo or California?
A Tokyo/California mega-quake is a semi supply-chain plus insurance shock: TSMC and fabless names (Nvidia) gap on single-point-of-failure fab risk, reinsurers absorb the catastrophe loss, and the yen can paradoxically strengthen on repatriation. Cleanest supply-shock analogue is the 2011 Tohoku quake, which disrupted auto and chip supply chains for months. Forward angle: unlike a demand-driven chip selloff (DeepSeek), this is a supply break — fab downtime tightens leading-edge capacity, so memory/foundry pricing could rise even as equities fall.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A mega-earthquake hits Tokyo or California, causing an insurance + supply shock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.38–+0.08% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.69–+0.4% · other way -18.33% (n=9) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.38–+1.44% · other way +9.99% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.63–-0.12% · other way +3.24% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.42–-0.24% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -12.05–+1.71% · other way +0.03% (n=10) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.56–+0.26% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.36–+0.84% · other way -1.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -6.83–+1.46% · other way +4.6% (n=11) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.99–+3.31% · other way -7.49% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.86–+0.17% · other way +1.57% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–+0.14% · other way -2.48% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.06–+2.01% · other way +2.35% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -7.0% | 82% | 24 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.8% · 5d -6.0% | 74% | 26 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 30 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 23 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.1% | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 32 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.7% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.6% | 59% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 32 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 56% | 37 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Mega-quake base rate roughly 1-3yr for either fault; insurance shock plausible but irregular. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.